Killik & Co

Nov 4, 2021

The pound fell sharply on the news. It lost nearly 1% against the dollar to $1.3561. Rachel Winter, Associate Investment Director at Killik & Co, said: “Although markets had priced in a 58% chance of a rate rise taking place this month, the Bank of England has chosen to leave rates on hold for the time being.” She added: “This of course will be at the displeasure of many who are becoming increasingly worried about inflation. Despite a small drop in CPI in September from 3% to 2.9%, the inflation rate is still above the Bank of England’s 2% target, and furthermore the Office for Budget Responsibility expects it to remain high in 2022 and 2023.” The move by the Bank to hold fire must have been a close call. In recent weeks members of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee have signalled their willingness to move fast to protect against inflation. The Bank said today it expects inflation to rise to around 5% in the Spring, but then fall back. It thinks rates will only need to go up “modestly” to return inflation to the 2% target. The Bank also left its quantitative easing programme unchanged at £895 billion. That was a closer 6-3 split, with Catherine Mann joining Ramsden and Saunders in voting to curtail QE. Paul Dales at Capital Economics said: “Rates are going up, but no-one knows when. But I have more confidence in our view that rates won’t rise next year as far and fast as the markets expect.”