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Investments

19

Portfolio Exits

2

About Ian Hogarth

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Latest Ian Hogarth News

Chip machine maker ASML will grow into a $500 billion business next year, tech investors predict

Oct 12, 2021

Key Points ASML provides chip makers with essential hardware, software and services to mass produce patterns on silicon using a method called lithography. It is the only company in the world offering extreme ultraviolet lithography machines that the likes of TSMC need to make the smallest and most sophisticated chips. Each EUV machine has over 100,000 parts and costs $150 million. They're shipped in 40 freight containers or four jumbo jets. ASML Holding Semiconductor company logo seen displayed on smart phone. ASML is a Dutch company and currently the largest supplier in the world of photolithography systems for the semiconductor industry. ( SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images LONDON – ASML , a Dutch firm that makes high-tech machines used in semiconductor manufacturing, will see its market value climb from $302 billion to more than $500 billion next year, according to two tech investors. Nathan Benaich, founder and general partner of boutique VC firm Air Street Capital, and Ian Hogarth, who sold his AI start-up Songkick to Warner Music Group, wrote in their annual "State of AI" report Tuesday that Europe's largest tech company is the little-known "linchpin" in the global semiconductor industry. Founded in 1984, ASML provides chip makers with essential hardware, software and services to mass produce patterns on silicon using a method called lithography. It is the only company in the world offering extreme ultraviolet lithography machines that the likes of TSMC need to make the smallest and most sophisticated chips. Each EUV machine has over 100,000 parts and costs $150 million. They're shipped in 40 freight containers or four jumbo jets. Closing the gap Several chip companies have seen their stock prices soar after the coronavirus pandemic led to a global chip shortage, but ASML's share price still has some room to grow, Hogarth told CNBC. He said ASML's market cap isn't on the same scale as the likes of Nvidia or TSMC because it's in Europe, where the market values hi-tech firms slightly lower, and because its technology is more behind the scenes. Nvidia is currently valued at $521 billion, while TSMC 's is $533 billion. "As people look for alpha when investing in this trend of semiconductors being more and more critical to global supply chains, this (ASML) feels like it's an obvious candidate," Hogarth said. ASML's growth will be fueled by certain nation's desire to onshore chip making and reduce their reliance on other countries. The vast majority of the world's chips are currently made in Asia. "If China is going to build the equivalent of what TSMC has today, or some of the leading American semiconductor companies, they're going to need to buy a lot of these (EUV) machines," Hogarth said. "So, the more countries consider this technology part of their key sovereignty, the more machines gets sold." Stock picks and investing trends from CNBC Pro: Last month, ASML said it expects a sales boom over the next decade. It believes annual revenue will hit 24-30 billion euros ($28-$35 billion) by 2025, with gross margins up to between 54% and 56%. The prediction is significantly higher than the 15-24 billion euro range it had previously forecast. "We see significant growth opportunities beyond 2025," the company said, adding that it expects to achieve an annual revenue growth rate of around 11% between 2020 and 2030. ASML said "global megatrends in the electronic industry" coupled with "a highly profitable and fiercely innovative ecosystem" are expected to continue to fuel growth across the semiconductor market. It added that growth in semiconductor markets and "increasing lithography intensity" are driving demand for its products and services. Over the last 12 months, ASML's share price on Amsterdam's stock exchange has gone from 328 euros to 646 euros last Friday, peaking at around 753 euros on Sept. 23. Not everyone is quite so bullish In a note to investors on Sept. 28, analysts at New Street Research argued "semicap expectations are lofty" and that ASML has "limited" upside in 2022 as it "remains supply constraint in EUV." The firm has a positive five-year outlook on ASML but it has "tactically" downgraded the stock to a "neutral" for now. Elsewhere, UBS also has a neutral rating on ASML's stock. In a note to investors on Sept. 29, analysts at the investment bank said "We remain highly convinced on ASML's growth potential in the mid-term but  … we struggle to see compelling upside to the shares on a 12-month view." VIDEO3:0503:05

Ian Hogarth Investments

19 Investments

Ian Hogarth has made 19 investments. Their latest investment was in Roleshare as part of their Angel on November 11, 2021.

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Ian Hogarth Investments Activity

investments chart

Date

Round

Company

Amount

New?

Co-Investors

Sources

11/17/2021

Angel

Roleshare

$0.55M

Yes

2

9/30/2021

Seed VC

Lapse

$1.39M

Yes

Atomico, Matt Robinson, Simon Franks, Speedinvest, and Undisclosed Angel Investors

5

9/22/2021

Seed VC

Mojo

$4.4M

Yes

1

8/26/2021

Seed VC

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$99M

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10

7/20/2021

Series A

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$99M

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10

Date

11/17/2021

9/30/2021

9/22/2021

8/26/2021

7/20/2021

Round

Angel

Seed VC

Seed VC

Seed VC

Series A

Company

Roleshare

Lapse

Mojo

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Amount

$0.55M

$1.39M

$4.4M

$99M

$99M

New?

Yes

Yes

Yes

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Co-Investors

Atomico, Matt Robinson, Simon Franks, Speedinvest, and Undisclosed Angel Investors

Sources

2

5

1

10

10

Ian Hogarth Portfolio Exits

2 Portfolio Exits

Ian Hogarth has 2 portfolio exits. Their latest portfolio exit was Trussle on July 12, 2021.

Date

Exit

Companies

Valuation
Valuations are submitted by companies, mined from state filings or news, provided by VentureSource, or based on a comparables valuation model.

Acquirer

Sources

7/12/2021

Acquired

4

00/00/0000

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10

Date

7/12/2021

00/00/0000

Exit

Acquired

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Companies

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Valuation

Acquirer

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Sources

4

10

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