Deepak Singh

Jun 13, 2022

Rupee to depreciate this week amid strong dollar, persistent foreign funds outflows; USDINR to move higher By Raj Deepak Singh Rupee depreciated majorly last week on the back of strong dollar and retreat in domestic markets. Meanwhile, RBI interest rate hike by 50 bps restricted further downsides. Dollar index edged higher amid rise in US treasury yields and strong economic data from country. US economy added 390K payrolls in May above market forecasts of 325K. The latest reading left the economy 822K jobs or 0.5% below its pre-pandemic level, in a sign, that the labour market remains resilient and is getting close to full employment. Additionally, US trade deficit shrunk in April, the trade deficit in the US narrowed to a four-month low of $87.1 billion in April from a record of $107.7 billion in March and below market forecasts of a $89.5 billion. However, sharp upside was capped as new claims for unemployment benefits increased by 27K to 229K in the week ended June 4th, the highest since mid-January and above market forecasts of 210K. We expect rupee to depreciate further this week till 78.30 amid strong dollar and persistent foreign funds outflows. Further, traders speculate that US Fed might hike its key interest rate by 50 basis points in its upcoming meeting on June 15. However, investors will remain vigilant ahead of major economic data from US and India. India’s consumer price index reading is forecasted to show that inflation has slipped to 7.10% in May from 7.79% in April. USDINR (June) is likely to move higher as long as it sustains above 77.30 and it may rise till 78.30 this week. For Monday, Rupee may continue with its depreciation mode amid strong dollar and persistent foreign funds outflows. Further, rupee may be pressurised by concerns over slower economic growth as RBI has lowered its growth forecast for FY 2022-23. As long as USDINR (June) sustains above 77.85 it may rise further till 78.15 level. (Raj Deepak Singh is an Analyst – F&O, Currency, and Commodities at ICICIdirect. The views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing)