Latest David Roche News
Jan 15, 2024
172 Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen speaks as Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s vice president and presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), looks on during a campaign rally ahead of the election in Taipei , Taiwan, January 11, 2024. Carlos Garcia Rawlins | Reuters China sees the DPP as a threat to its ultimate goal of “reunification” with the self-governing island of 23 million, and said on Saturday that the presidential election result was not representative of popular opinion . The DPP rejects the so-called “one China principle” and advocates a separate and distinct Taiwanese national identity. “If you look at what this election does, it tells you very clearly that there is absolutely no support in Taiwan for reunification with China, and that it will not be possible,” said Roche, chairman and strategist at Independent Strategy, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box”. Europe” Monday. “What this election tells you in all its ramifications, including the distribution of votes in the Legislative Yuan, is that Taiwan is now a mature, sovereign, democratic state, and that is not something China will accept. For China, this is separate from them, which is why you are heading towards a bigger crisis,” he said. China insisted this weekend that Taiwan was “the Taiwan of China” and castigated against world leaders who praised Lai, accusing them of interfering in China’s internal affairs. However, the market reaction was muted on Asian stocks on Monday. Taiwan’s weighted index rose 0.19%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 index closed 0.1% lower. The reason markets have reacted in this muted way, Roche argued, is that they are governed by the belief that “money buys everything”, and that the scale and global importance of Taiwanese giants like TSMC and Foxconn mean Beijing will be reluctant to cause too much disruption. “It’s simply a wrong view: (Chinese President Xi Jinping) puts politics well before economics, he always said it and always did it,” said Roche, who correctly predicted the The evolution of the Asian crisis in 2007. 1997 and the global financial crisis of 2008. Xi has repeatedly said Taiwan would be reunified with China and has not ruled out the use of military force to achieve his goals. Many analysts believe a military incursion could take place if diplomacy fails. Roche argued that Xi will always prioritize the interests of the Chinese Communist Party over the economy, a trend he believes the market is overlooking because the outcome will be “not at all calm” and will place Taiwan ” on a collision course with China. Status quo Citi analysts, however, struck a more optimistic tone about the election outcome, suggesting in a research note Sunday that Lai “will likely seek to maintain the status quo in cross-Strait relations.” “The DPP lost its legislative majority, with the opposition KMT holding the largest number of seats in the legislature, but also fell short of a majority with the TPP and independent lawmakers holding the deciding votes; this will likely offer checks and balances on the ruling administration, but it is unlikely to hinder normal policy implementation,” said the bank’s Taiwan macroeconomic strategy team. Citi believes that Taiwan’s economic momentum will become increasingly visible in the second half of the year and that the Taiwan dollar is expected to outperform after “some initial turbulence with the elections stabilizing.” “The market is likely to refocus on fundamental factors such as better prospects for the semiconductor industry and lower global yields, which is more likely to increase foreign inflows and support TWD, in our opinion,” the strategists added. Still, Roche said Saturday’s election trends indicate that a large share of voters are disillusioned with Taiwan’s mainstream mainstream parties and that to fulfill his promises of independence and sovereignty, Lai will need to reduce dependence on the economy Taiwanese attitude towards China. Lai won 40% of the popular vote, but his party lost 10 seats in Taiwan’s Parliament and fell below the majority threshold. The main opposition Kuomintang won 52 seats, one more than the DPP, and the smaller Taiwan People’s Party’s eight seats make it a potential kingmaker in the 113-seat Legislative Yuan. . TPP candidate Ko Wen-je received more than 26 percent of the presidential vote, while the percentage of abstainers increased to 29 percent. Roche said this suggests a “certain weariness with the classic politics of confrontation and compromise with China”, and pointed to a shift in the priorities of young voters towards creating a more dynamic economy and affordable housing. “Before launching directly into a new confrontation with China, he will have to face a major challenge concerning his national economy: to win back all these disenchanted voters,” added Roche.
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David Roche has made 3 investments. Their latest investment was in HomeRez as part of their Series A on November 26, 2018.
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