TCW

Nov 21, 2023

South Africa Business Mood Slips as Car Dealer Sentiment Plunges Oil Holds Two-Day Advance on Speculation OPEC+ May Deepen Curbs Treasuries Climb to Erase 2023 Losses as Fed Cut Bets Blossom Bond Managers of $2.5 Trillion Make Case for Leaving Cash Behind Muddy Waters Short Report Sends CPI Property’s Bonds to Lows Hunt Given £17 Billion UK Borrowing Boost Before Statement Philippines Tells Importers to Buy More Rice to Stretch Supply Russia Cuts Seaborne Crude Flows to Three-Month Low Before OPEC+ Asia Stocks to Gain After Tech Giants Boost Nasdaq: Markets Wrap As US Dollar Weakens, Emerging-Market Currencies Are Back Up After Wild Year Term Premium Turns Negative as Bond Traders Boost Recession Bets Germany Blocks Current Budget in Response to Court Ruling South Korea’s Early Exports Data Point to Continued Recovery Drahi’s Altice Sells Data Centers Stake for €535 Million Japan Urges LNG Buyers to Sign Long-Term Deals for Fuel Security Cold Snap to Hit Europe From Weekend in First Winter Energy Test Stellantis, China’s CATL in EV Battery Supply Pact for Europe Europe Gas Fluctuates as Cold Snap Spreads From Berlin to London Italy Starts 20% Sale of Paschi in Accelerated Book Building Top 1% of tax filers saw incomes rise by almost 10% in 2021: Statistics Canada Kids should learn financial literacy in school over 'parallelograms and rhombuses': author Ottawa extends deadline for Underused Housing Tax Financial advice from AI may be educational but not holistic, experts say Women less likely than men to request a raise, negotiate salary: surveys Timing, patience key to nabbing affordable concert, sports resale tickets: fans Many Canadians 'uncomfortably close to broke': MNP It’s never too early to think about tax-loss selling: Dale Jackson Many Canadians stuck in 'chaotic whirlwind of personal finance stress': Edward Jones Money manager of $205M in assets explains how meditation informs his decisions Canadian tech workers make 46% less than U.S. counterparts: TMU study HELOCs can play a vital role in your finance toolkit: Dale Jackson Financial planning for raising kids: expert says cash flow is key HELOCs can play a vital role in your finance toolkit Financial stress levels climb as Canadians use debt to pay for essentials Looking for flights on a budget? Consider price freezing and other newer trends Employers set aside less for 2024 pay increases: survey Financial uncertainty new normal for many Canadians, RBC survey shows Bank of Canada rate pause opens sweet spot for savers: Dale Jackson Muddy Waters Short Report Sends CPI Property’s Bonds to Lows Asia Stocks to Gain After Tech Giants Boost Nasdaq: Markets Wrap Drahi’s Altice Sells Data Centers Stake for €535 Million ECB Warns Banks’ Commercial Real Estate Hits Could Worsen Stress Wanda Proposes Extending Payment on a Dollar Bond by 11 Months China Guides Banks to Cap Early 2024 Loans, Shift Some Forward Chinese Property Bonds, Shares Jump on Funding Support Plan Bank of America Will Move Tokyo Headquarters to New Tower Hong Kong’s Biggest Developer Sells Homes at Six-Year Low Price Iron Ore Soars to Nine-Month High on China Stimulus Anticipation South Korea’s Household Debt Hits Record, Defying Rate Pressure RBA’s Bullock Says Inflation Remains a ‘Crucial Challenge’ White House Opens Accounts for Biden, Harris on Meta's Threads BOE Governor Says UK Interest Rates May Have to Rise Again 'We want to own malls': Primaris REIT CEO on $370M Halifax shopping centre purchase Kids of homeowners twice as likely to own real estate in Canada Mayor of London Rejects Proposal for Vegas-Style Giant Sphere CPI Property Group Names Greenbaum CEO, Sells Croatia Hotels Dimon Praises Workers as JPMorgan Tops Out Headquarters Tower South Africa Business Mood Slips as Car Dealer Sentiment Plunges Philippines, US Begin Joint Patrols in South China Sea Oil Holds Two-Day Advance on Speculation OPEC+ May Deepen Curbs Treasuries Climb to Erase 2023 Losses as Fed Cut Bets Blossom Geely Takes On Tesla and BYD in Malaysia With Launch of Smart EV Bond Managers of $2.5 Trillion Make Case for Leaving Cash Behind Muddy Waters Short Report Sends CPI Property’s Bonds to Lows Philippines Tells Importers to Buy More Rice to Stretch Supply Russia Cuts Seaborne Crude Flows to Three-Month Low Before OPEC+ Asia Stocks to Gain After Tech Giants Boost Nasdaq: Markets Wrap Siemens Energy Confronts Bruised Investors Looking for Answers Drahi’s Altice Sells Data Centers Stake for €535 Million Baidu’s Revenue Beats as ChatGPT-Style AI Starts Monetization ECB Warns Banks’ Commercial Real Estate Hits Could Worsen Stress Cold Snap to Hit Europe From Weekend in First Winter Energy Test Stellantis, China’s CATL in EV Battery Supply Pact for Europe Mr. Hunt Has Room for Tax Cuts: The London Rush EV Maker Nio Partners With Changan Auto on Battery Swapping Europe Gas Fluctuates as Cold Snap Spreads From Berlin to London Philippines Tells Importers to Buy More Rice to Stretch Supply Russia Cuts Seaborne Crude Flows to Three-Month Low Before OPEC+ Asia Stocks to Gain After Tech Giants Boost Nasdaq: Markets Wrap Siemens Energy Confronts Bruised Investors Looking for Answers Japan Urges LNG Buyers to Sign Long-Term Deals for Fuel Security Cold Snap to Hit Europe From Weekend in First Winter Energy Test Stellantis, China’s CATL in EV Battery Supply Pact for Europe Europe Gas Fluctuates as Cold Snap Spreads From Berlin to London Can Oil Ever Be Green? Norway Turns to Wind-Powered Drilling Battery Maker Develops Futuristic Cobalt-Free Cell for Electric Cars Carbon Project Developer Soars in Rare Listing Despite Woes Europe’s Car Sales Climbed in October on Order Backlogs UAE’s Biggest Oil Producer, Santos to Work on Carbon Capture Codelco to Spend Extra $720 Million Overhauling Key Copper Mine Chinese-Owned MMG Snaps Up Botswana Copper Mine for $1.9 Billion Green Energy Bets In Vietnam Need Clearer Rules, Report Says China Wealth Fund’s Infrastructure Head Resigns in Latest Loss India Closer to Agreement With Tesla to Import EVs, Set Up Plant South Africa’s Quest for Energy Security Threatens Climate Goals The Daily Chase: Sam Altman leaves OpenAI; First Quantum faces Panama copper mine shutdown Berman: pay close attention to the political shift in Argentina CRA claws back $458 million in pandemic-era wage subsidies after partial audit Canada's profligate spending forced interest rates higher, Scotiabank says U.S. business sentiment on Canadian economy hits 'record low': AmCham Canada head Gen Z to overtake boomers in U.S. workforce by early next year: report The Daily Chase: Oil enters bear market; Gap exceeds analyst expectations 'No-brainer': Alberta panel hears callers urge split from Canada Pension Plan Small business owners call on government to take on Amazon, level playing field U.S. realtor commission ruling sets 'blueprint' for Canadian case: lawyer 25% of Canadians have not paid off last holiday season's debt: survey ​The Daily Chase: EV charger funding Frustrated tech leaders call for progress on open banking to increase competition CMHC says annual pace of housing starts in October up 1% from September Freeland touts need for grocery competition after Loblaw, Metro post higher profits Cities facing 'unprecedented challenges,' Montreal mayor says as property taxes rise Addressing Indigenous inequities could boost economy by 0.5%: RBC report ​The Daily Chase: Big grocers report earnings Statistics Canada reports manufacturing and wholesale sales up in September Zelenskiy Warns Army Chiefs Not to Meddle in Politics, Sun Says  Erdogan Ally Rules Out President's Bid to Ease Election Rules Russia Cuts Seaborne Crude Flows to Three-Month Low Before OPEC+ Germany Blocks Current Budget in Response to Court Ruling Japan Urges LNG Buyers to Sign Long-Term Deals for Fuel Security Hamas Chief Says Close to ‘Truce’ Amid Hostage Negotiations South Africa’s Quest for Energy Security Threatens Climate Goals The Dutch Rethink Sex, Drugs and Profits as They Head to the Polls A New Front Is Opening Up in the US-China Conflict Over Chips France Sends Top Diplomat to China as EV-Probe Backlash Heats Up Japan Warns North Korea After Getting Notice of Satellite Launch White House Opens Accounts for Biden, Harris on Meta's Threads UK Says AI ‘Hit Squad’ Could Speed Up Asylum, Welfare Processing Hostage Talks Progress as Heavy Israel-Hamas Fighting Grips Gaza Far-Right Leader Suddenly Jumps in Polls Ahead of Dutch Election Abu Dhabi-Backed Fund Targets Telegraph Control With Barclay Loan Deal Concerns emerge over NextStar's plans to hire foreign workers for battery plant F-16 Shipments to Taiwan at ‘High Risk’ of Delays, Lawmakers Say China Ramps Up Middle East Courtship by Hosting Top Diplomats Asia Stocks to Gain After Tech Giants Boost Nasdaq: Markets Wrap Drahi’s Altice Sells Data Centers Stake for €535 Million Baidu’s Revenue Beats as ChatGPT-Style AI Starts Monetization EV Maker Nio Partners With Changan Auto on Battery Swapping OpenAI in ‘Intense Discussions’ to Unify Company, Memo Says AI-Led Chip Rally Drives Taiwan Stock Gauge Toward 19-Month High Chinese-Owned MMG Snaps Up Botswana Copper Mine for $1.9 Billion Philippines Eyes Use of Digital Currency in Sovereign Bond Sales South Africa’s Telkom in Exclusive Talks to Sell Towers to PE Firm Uber Is Said to Boost Convertible Bond Issue to $1.5 Billion Crypto Market Is Just Fine With a $4 Billion Penalty for Binance India Closer to Agreement With Tesla to Import EVs, Set Up Plant Dubai Government Seeks up to $315 Million From Taxi Business IPO Abu Dhabi’s $50 Billion Fund Sets Up Wealth Tech Firm With BNY The Dutch Rethink Sex, Drugs and Profits as They Head to the Polls Trump’s Truth Social Parent Company Sues 20 Media Outlets TSMC Weighs Third Japan Chip Plant With Cutting-Edge 3nm Tech Musk’s X Corp. Sues Media Matters Over Link to Pro-Nazi Content Big Tech Suppliers Need to Cut Emissions Faster, Greenpeace Says The U.S. Fed is failing in four ways: Mohamed A. El-Erian Apple, JPMorgan turn to pay now grow later Remote Working Boom Is Huge for College Towns Like Knoxville Walmart flashes a warning sign to the entire consumer economy: Andrea Felsted Millennials are finally spending like grown-ups Dismal U.S. GDP report raises the odds of recession this year: Gary Shilling Musk is wrong for Twitter even if deal math works out Chocolate bunnies can teach us to save our food supply The Fed has made a U.S. recession inevitable America's oil reserve weapon risks misfiring Four-day workweeks can burn you out U.S. Fed expects a soft landing. Don't count on it Markets are pushing Fed into developing-economy territory Commodity traders go from bonanza to bailout plea Putin's war shows West must clean up dirty money Salary transparency is good for everyone Microsoft's US$69B Activision deal could be a blunder What if the oil market bulls are wrong and this lonely bear is right? Canada's trucker protest may spread from Ottawa to U.S. Crypto Market Is Just Fine With a $4 Billion Penalty for Binance Argentina Investors Cheer Milei Victory, Brace for Peso Selloff Wood’s Ark, 21Shares Unveil Fee on Pending Spot Bitcoin ETF Bitcoin ETF Hype Has Wall Street Eyeing $100 Billion Crypto Potential China’s Early Stage Technology Stocks on Brink of Bull Market Lasting Recovery in Small Caps Still Elusive as Debt Costs Bite SEC Defers Decisions on Two More Spot Bitcoin ETF Applications Wall Street Traders Are Placing All-or-Nothing Bets on a Soft Landing JPMorgan’s Struggling ETFs Show Demand Crisis for Do-Good Funds Jump Spins Off Wormhole Project, Shrinking Its Crypto Business Active ETF Boom Is Mostly a Mirage as Stockpicking Fades Away Crypto Firm CoinShares Looks to Buy ETFs From Rival Valkyrie Biggest Stablecoin Issuer Tether Now Wants to Become a Major Bitcoin Miner Bitcoin Flirts With $38,000 as Spot ETF Hopes Encourage Bull Run SEC Defers Decisions on Spot Bitcoin ETF, Grayscale Ether Futures Filings Bitcoin-Stocks Correlation Now Most Negative Since Covid’s Onset Druckenmiller, Soros Cut Stakes in Nvidia After Share Surge Former Crypto Lender Genesis Executive Garcia Starts New Venture Stocks and Bonds Rally as Traders Bet That Fed Hikes Are Done World Series breakthrough for teams’ business Shane Pinto suspension the result of a regulated gambling market that works, say industry insiders Canadian Football League fanatics fuel financials What’s next for private equity investment in professional sports? Canada’s Davis Cup team finding love Impact of Jersey Ads on the NHL Promising Puck Drop for PWHL Betting on Women's Sports is on the Rise NHL expands market to Oz ‘Tis the Season for Selling Sports Books Television deals, ratings generate record-setting NFL revenue Playing for global basketball and sponsorship glory Awareness still at disadvantage in decades-long battle for tennis pay equity FanDuel, Rivalry deliver something new for betting customers Corporations considering Canadian cricket Michael Mackenzie, Bloomberg News , (Bloomberg) -- For investors stashing record sums in cash, US bond managers overseeing a combined $2.5 trillion have a bit of advice: It’s time to put that money to work. That’s the message from Capital Group, DoubleLine Capital, Pimco and TCW Group. And it comes as many fixed-income managers are still licking their wounds following a tough year that’s seen the bond market trail ultrasafe T-bills and money-funds carrying the highest rates in decades. For these West Coast bond managers, this month shows the risk of staying in cash too long. Signs of ebbing inflation and softer growth have fueled a 3.4% surge in the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index in November, bringing it back to about flat for 2023 as of Nov. 17. That’s still well short of what cash has earned this year. But it shows what a real turning point could deliver after a year marked by head fakes over price pressures and Federal Reserve policy. The asset managers said in interviews last week that they’re comfortable buying Treasuries and other high-quality bonds at levels they finally see as attractive. And they generally agreed on extending interest-rate risk as far as the five-year area of Treasuries, while also owning mortgage debt, which they consider cheap. “My sense of things right now is that 4 1/2 to 5% is a safe place to be buying bonds,” said Greg Whiteley, head of government securities investing at DoubleLine. He likes Treasuries due in around five years because he says the segment has scope to gain as traders price in more Fed cuts. The area is also less vulnerable than longer maturities given worries about US deficits and borrowing needs, as well as sticky inflation. Treasuries are on pace to halt a six-month slide. Ten-year yields tumbled below 4.4% at one point last week after touching 5% in October for the first time since 2007. The rally means US government bonds have a chance to avoid an unprecedented third straight year of losses. Naturally, active managers are doing their best to persuade investors holding a record $5.7 trillion in money-market funds to funnel cash their way and into longer-dated bonds, which stand to benefit should the economy weaken. Read more: Bond Managers Wary of False Dawns See Signs This Time’s for Real The potential for that scenario has started to look stronger for the four money managers. Strains among consumers in areas such as auto loans and pressure across commercial real estate suggest to them that 2024 will see a material economic slowdown and lead to Fed easing. While the appeal of cash is clear, “at some point, though, and you’ve seen this just over the course of this month, that approach means you miss all the potential price appreciation if the economy starts to slow,” said Ryan Murphy, head of fixed-income business development at Capital Group. The firm’s $76 billion Bond Fund of America fund has gained 3.4% in the past month, leaving it down about 0.1% this year through Nov. 17, data compiled by Bloomberg show. An inverted curve with bill rates above 5% poses a hurdle in convincing investors to take more risk in bonds, especially with the Fed signaling it’s in no rush to lower rates. For investors, it’s hard to abandon cash and “tread back into shark-infested water,” said Dan Ivascyn, chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. In the past month, the $126 billion Pimco Income Fund that he co-manages has gained 3%, for a year-to-date return of 5%, data compiled by Bloomberg show. With inflation still elevated, the market may have been leaning too far in favor of Fed cuts, he said last week. However, he still expects easing next year. “Next year’s theme may be a reminder that your cash rate’s only guaranteed overnight,” he said. “And if and when the Fed starts cutting rates you may wish you locked some of those rates in.” ‘Compelling’ Mortgages Several firms — DoubleLine, Pimco and TCW — pointed to mortgage debt as a beaten-down area they expect to boost performance in 2024. Spreads on Fannie Mae current coupon bonds, a proxy for mortgage securities being created now, are wider than the 10-year average, and the outlook has brightened in part because of bets on Fed easing. Read more: MBS Look Cheap to Fund Managers From Saba to Janus as Fed Pauses Owning mortgages is a “compelling trade” for the next year, said Peter Van Gelderen, co-head of the securitized group at TCW. DoubleLine’s Whitely said the firm is overweight mortgages, and Ivascyn said the same for the Pimco Income Fund. “Uncertainty related to interest rates and uncertainty related to regulation for banks” has hurt the market this year, and that tide will turn with mortgage spreads at “a historically cheap level,” Van Gelderen said. --With assistance from Tania Chen and Scott Carpenter. ©2023 Bloomberg L.P.