Mar 15, 2023

The Great Hiking Cycle Is Seen as Done as Yields Drop Below Cash Oil Rises From Three-Month Low After SVB Turmoil Rattles Markets Asian Shares Set to Climb as Banking Angst Eases: Markets Wrap Australia Loan Losses to Rise, Banks Can Absorb Shocks, CFR Says India’s Opaque Purchases of Russian Oil Emerge as Sanctions Test Donald Trump’s Truth Social Cuts Staff as SPAC Languishes Three European Nations Push for Lower Price on Russian Oil Cap Coal India to Boost Supplies to Power Plants as Heat Waves Loom Vietnam Cuts Key Rate by 100 Basis Points as Economy Slumps Korea’s Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Dips in Sign of Resilience California Storm Blackouts Plunge Silicon Valley into Darkness ConocoPhillips Oil Project Challenged by Environmentalists CLSA to Double Southeast Asia Investment Bank Team in Five Years Unlikely Venture Star Bags 35% Returns by Mining Science Papers China Property Bulls See Silver Lining Behind Earnings Debacle US Construction Shows No Signs of Slowdown, Caterpillar CEO Says Hunt Has Limited Room for Maneuver on UK Budget Petro Bill Seeks to Slash Role of Private Colombia Pension Funds Why the Global Shipping Industry Can’t Clean Up Its Act Quitting your job? Experts say it's best to have a plan before you do Household debt-to-income ratio edges lower as interest payments expand Canadians making fewer trips to the grocery store as inflation pinches: RBC report With airfares rising, here's how to find a travel deal this year Young Canadians keep up pandemic-inspired DIY projects to save money Here are the most risky types of scams in Canada: Report Review your rights before signing paperwork during a layoff: Employment lawyers More than half of Canadians say current economic conditions have impacted retirement plans: Survey Majority of Canadians feel like they're being targeted more than ever by financial fraud: Survey 'Don't be afraid to ask': Tips for young workers in salary negotiations Canadians want to retire by 61, amid financial concerns: CIBC poll Tax credits and deductions for Canadians to consider 5 RRSP season resolutions for a comfortable retirement: Dale Jackson Getting divorced? Here are the top tax considerations to take into account RRSP myths prevail as Canadians rush to contribution deadline: Dale Jackson Spousal RRSPs can offer tax benefits, but experts say it might not work for everyone MPs summon big grocery store CEOs to testify in Ottawa over food inflation 75% of Canadians say any level of debt is a relationship deal breaker: Survey Filing taxes for the first time? Here's what you need to know Signature Bank Was Seized After Leaders Caused ‘Crisis of Confidence’ Aussie Economist Warns of First Generation Poorer Than Parents Tenacious US Inflation Reaches Past Housing and Proves Hard to Tame UK Builders Pressured in Parliament to Commit to Cladding Repair Poland Backs Debut Homebuyers as Mortgage Gloom Stifles Demand Roubini Launches Alternative Haven Trade for the Era of Endless Inflation Russia Built $80 Billion Offshore Cash Pile in Year of Sanctions JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Cuts Equity Allocation on Recession Risks China’s Official Data Likely to Show Economy Strengthening Australia’s Weak Sentiment Bolsters Case for RBA to Pause Rates A Look at Evergrande’s Restructuring Scenarios as Key Date Looms China Stands Almost Alone in Expanding Its Coal Power Fleet SVB Didn’t Just Lend to Startups. It Was Key Partner for Affordable Housing Trouble at SVB, First Republic Signal Reckoning for Tech Money Fueling California Interest Payments Soar in Canada by Most Since at Least 1990 Investors Pile Into Property Debt as Banks Bail on Landlords China’s Premier Downplays GDP Growth, Says Economy Unbalanced Canadian Farms Buck Housing Market Trend as Prices Keep Rising Country Garden Flags Profit Warning, Losses Up to $1 Billion Peru’s Desert Coast Braces for More Deadly Rains From Cyclone The Great Hiking Cycle Is Seen as Done as Yields Drop Below Cash Cholera Risk in Malawi Climbs as Cyclone Wreaks Further Damage America’s Largest Owner of Local Sports Channels Files for Bankruptcy Top Pharmacies Pressed on Abortion Pill Plans by Senate Democrats Asian Shares Set to Climb as Banking Angst Eases: Markets Wrap Australia Loan Losses to Rise, Banks Can Absorb Shocks, CFR Says India’s Opaque Purchases of Russian Oil Emerge as Sanctions Test HSBC Cuts Base Pay for Promoted Bankers by 25% Before UK Reform Donald Trump’s Truth Social Cuts Staff as SPAC Languishes Coal India to Boost Supplies to Power Plants as Heat Waves Loom Startup Tells New Hires They Need To Know ChatGPT For a Job Korea’s Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Dips in Sign of Resilience California Storm Blackouts Plunge Silicon Valley into Darkness Fed to Study Tougher Rules for Midsize Banks After SVB, WSJ Says Xi Reboots Statesman Image in Push to Counter US on World Stage ConocoPhillips Oil Project Challenged by Environmentalists CLSA to Double Southeast Asia Investment Bank Team in Five Years Cathay’s New CEO Outlines Rebuild With Profit in Sight This Year Cholera Risk in Malawi Climbs as Cyclone Wreaks Further Damage Oil Rises From Three-Month Low After SVB Turmoil Rattles Markets Asian Shares Set to Climb as Banking Angst Eases: Markets Wrap India’s Opaque Purchases of Russian Oil Emerge as Sanctions Test Three European Nations Push for Lower Price on Russian Oil Cap Coal India to Boost Supplies to Power Plants as Heat Waves Loom California Storm Blackouts Plunge Silicon Valley into Darkness ConocoPhillips Oil Project Challenged by Environmentalists CLSA to Double Southeast Asia Investment Bank Team in Five Years US Construction Shows No Signs of Slowdown, Caterpillar CEO Says Why the Global Shipping Industry Can’t Clean Up Its Act Hunt to Extend Free Child Care in UK Budget to Boost Labor Force Lawmakers fear spill on Keystone system in southern Kansas SVB Exposes ‘Lazy’ ESG Funds as Hundreds Bought Into Doomed Bank Argentina Inflation Surpasses 100% as Economic Recession Looms Ukraine Latest: Key Republican Assails US Policy in Ukraine Goldman’s Rubner ‘Shocked’ by Big Market Moves, Blames Liquidity ConocoPhillips Wastes No Time Starting Construction on Oil Project in Alaska BP Economist Warns Against Focusing Too Much on Decarbonization If Ottawa wants to tighten its purse, spending rules and more taxes could help: experts 'It would take a big surprise' from U.S. Fed to put serious pressure on the loonie: Expert Feds to allocate $75.9M to air travel sector to aid with complaint backlog Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 4.1 per cent in January The Daily Chase: Bank shares rebound; Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan posts private equity gains U.S. inflation eases but stays high, putting Fed in tough spot The Daily Chase: Regulators take control of SVB Canadian division; Markets point to volatile open Cashback, reward apps helping Canadians save, but where is the data going? Airports gear up for passenger surge as spring break tests their capacity Why SVB was hit by a bank run and where it could lead Canada's 2023 federal budget coming March 28, says Freeland ​Canadians are staring a recession in the face: David Rosenberg Canadian economy gained nearly 22,000 jobs in February: StatsCan The Daily Chase: Canada added nearly 22,000 in February; BMO to acquire Air Miles Bank of Canada seeks more evidence rates are now high enough Credit card debt up 15 per cent in Q4, younger Canadians feel hardest pinch: Equifax Former Bank of Canada economist reacts to rate decision The Daily Chase: Loonie stabilizes; Maple Leaf battles with inflation Carmakers can kiss pre-pandemic combustion car sales goodbye Xi Reboots Statesman Image in Push to Counter US on World Stage ConocoPhillips Oil Project Challenged by Environmentalists Senator Brown Urges Fed to Tighten Bank Regulations, Pause Rate Hikes Petro Bill Seeks to Slash Role of Private Colombia Pension Funds Hunt to Extend Free Child Care in UK Budget to Boost Labor Force Biden to Issue Executive Order Enforcing Gun Background Checks Ukraine Latest: Key Republican Assails US Policy in Ukraine George Santos Files Paperwork for 2024 Reelection Bid Aussie Economist Warns of First Generation Poorer Than Parents Americanas Executives, Brazil Central Bank Chief Asked to Testify in Congress The US Is Now Taking Applications to Run Public EV Chargers President Sall Is Risking Senegal Stability as Gas Boom Nears, Rival Says EU Seeks to Reduce Energy Costs in Bid for Competitiveness UK Builders Pressured in Parliament to Commit to Cladding Repair Poland May Transfer MiG-29s to Ukraine in Weeks, Premier Says Germany Makes Last-Minute Demands Over Reform of EU Fiscal Rules Hunt Considers Limiting UK Energy Profits Tax When Prices Fall US Urges Turkey to Allow NATO Expansion As Officials Set to Meet SVB Failure Becomes Fodder for Anti-ESG Crowd in US Culture Wars Top Pharmacies Pressed on Abortion Pill Plans by Senate Democrats Donald Trump’s Truth Social Cuts Staff as SPAC Languishes Startup Tells New Hires They Need To Know ChatGPT For a Job Xi Reboots Statesman Image in Push to Counter US on World Stage CLSA to Double Southeast Asia Investment Bank Team in Five Years Unlikely Venture Star Bags 35% Returns by Mining Science Papers Signature Bank Was Seized After Leaders Caused ‘Crisis of Confidence’ TikTok Considers Splitting From ByteDance If Deal With US Fails SVB Bridge Bank’s CEO Asks Depositors to Help the Lender Rebuild SVB Exposes ‘Lazy’ ESG Funds as Hundreds Bought Into Doomed Bank Short-seller Citron Deletes All Its Old Tweets, Citing Trolls And Lawsuits Anchorage Digital Cuts 20% of Staff While Citing Crypto Regulatory Uncertainty Meta to Cut 10,000 Jobs, Eliminate 5,000 More Vacant Positions ChatGPT Creator OpenAI Debuts New GPT-4 AI System Crypto Firms Move Cash to Asset Managers Including Fidelity as Banking Crisis Deepens Startup That Trains AI to Do Tasks For You Raises $350 Million Bitcoin Tops $26,000 as Sentiment Stays Upbeat After US Steps African Fintech Startup Financed by FTX, SVB Said to Weigh Sale Good in the long-term? Fund manager on SVB and tough tech backdrop The U.S. Fed is failing in four ways: Mohamed A. El-Erian Apple, JPMorgan turn to pay now grow later Remote Working Boom Is Huge for College Towns Like Knoxville Walmart flashes a warning sign to the entire consumer economy: Andrea Felsted Millennials are finally spending like grown-ups Dismal U.S. GDP report raises the odds of recession this year: Gary Shilling Musk is wrong for Twitter even if deal math works out Chocolate bunnies can teach us to save our food supply The Fed has made a U.S. recession inevitable America's oil reserve weapon risks misfiring Four-day workweeks can burn you out U.S. Fed expects a soft landing. Don't count on it Markets are pushing Fed into developing-economy territory Commodity traders go from bonanza to bailout plea Putin's war shows West must clean up dirty money Salary transparency is good for everyone Microsoft's US$69B Activision deal could be a blunder What if the oil market bulls are wrong and this lonely bear is right? Canada's trucker protest may spread from Ottawa to U.S. Cathie Wood’s ARKK Lures Biggest Inflow Since 2021 Glory Days Roubini Launches Alternative Haven Trade for the Era of Endless Inflation US Regional Banks Remain Under Pressure as First Republic Sinks VIX Soars as Markets Rush for Cover on Financial Contagion Risk SVB Meltdown Brings Another Blow to Cash-Starved Biotech Industry Systemic-Risk Fears Put an End to 2023 Stock Market Miracle Who Saw It Coming? Short Sellers Were Out Front of Bank Upheaval Short Bets on Cathie Wood’s ARKK Hit Fresh Record on Rate-Hike Fears Private Lenders Targeted in Debt-Relief Proposal by UK Lawmakers Vanguard’s First New ETF in Two Years Targets Short-Term Munis Stock ETFs Blamed for Liquidity Shocks in Short-Term Treasuries Grayscale CEO Sonnenshein Says ETF Court Ruling May Come by Third Quarter Fund of Women-Run Firms Is Beating the S&P 500 Since Launching Anti-Woke Scorn Poses Risks for ESG Funds' Concentrated Ownership Grayscale-SEC Fight Could Clear the Way for Anybody to Speculate on Bitcoin Tesla, GM Follow Own Shareholders With Push Into Lithium Miners FTX’s Alameda Sues Grayscale Over Fees, Redemptions From Crypto Trusts JPMorgan Spells Out ‘Volmageddon’ Risk on Zero-Day Option Craze What to Watch as Grayscale and SEC Face Off Over ETF Conversion BCE CEO says tech hiring & donations continue despite tough economy Cenovus CEO Pourbaix to step down, become executive chair; Jon McKenzie to be new CEO Manulife CEO on diversification, insurance demand and digital transformation Decision on new Suncor CEO expected 'very soon' Restaurant Brands' CEO change is 'all about accelerating growth': Executive chairman Restaurant Brands' CEO change is 'all about accelerating growth': Executive chairman Reed Hastings explains why he's stepping down as Netflix CEO in blog post Bankman-Fried says in court that he's ready for U.S. extradition SBF sent back to Bahamian jail after catching lawyer off guard with U.S. extradition plan Disney's Iger returns to reckon with his own 15-year Legacy Women making small gains, but still troublingly under-represented in the C-suite Gerry Schwartz to step down as CEO at Onex, Bobby Le Blanc named next CEO Dominic Barton on Canada-China relations, future at Rio Tinto 'We’re serving Canadians better' following the pandemic: McKesson Canada CEO Rebecca McKillican World's richest family loses US$11.4B in Walmart rout 'Fine balance': Rania Llewellyn on fitting her long-term inclusion goals into Laurentian's revamp First female bank CEO in Canada leads with younger self in mind ​Company holiday parties are making a comeback, but many employers have a plan B Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos now worth almost half a trillion dollars Alaric Nightingale and Rakesh Sharma, Bloomberg News A truck driver stands on a truck near an oil refinery, operated by Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd., in Mumbai, India, on Saturday, Dec. 10, 2022. A senior official at India's oil ministry told reporters this month India has been buying oil from about 30 countries, and will continue to buy from anywhere including Russia beyond January. Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg , Bloomberg (Bloomberg) -- En route to New Delhi this month, US officials proclaimed themselves satisfied that India is buying Russian oil below G-7 price caps designed to undercut Moscow’s war in Ukraine without disrupting global energy flows. Market experts — and even some of those involved in the energy trade — say it’s not so clear. India’s consumption of Russian crude was minimal and sporadic before President Vladimir Putin’s forces attacked Ukraine, but it has soared since, becoming a key tool for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bid to fight energy inflation. Yet the structure of India’s oil trade means that the final price it pays includes shipping, insurance and other costs upon arrival at its ports, without a detailed breakdown. That makes it hard to know how much it’s actually paying Russia, and whether it’s undercutting the goal of limiting Moscow’s revenue from crude sales. “The reality is this market has become extremely opaque,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. “It is near-impossible to get middlemen costs.” Uncertainty about how much India pays is part of the murkiness around Russian oil flows more generally, as the trade shifts from the Atlantic basin to Asia and from large traders to smaller entities. And it highlights the uphill struggle by Ukraine’s allies to enforce or even encourage compliance with the curbs imposed over the past year. Russian Oil Price Cap Seen Working Even With 25% Participation India’s oil ministry, Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of External Affairs did not respond to requests for comments. Since Modi’s government never signed up to the G-7 cap, it doesn’t have an obligation to comply with it — so long as it is not using Western insurance or shipping services. And while people familiar with the matter say the government won’t break the sanctions — and has asked banks and traders to adhere to the rules — the challenge comes in monitoring or enforcing such vows. For instance, to supply buyers in places such as India and China, which continue to rely on Russian crude, a “gray fleet” of tankers has emerged. That’s helped push down the costs of crude transport overall, according to Viktor Katona, lead analyst at Kpler. But the rise of the gray fleet and other middlemen in the Russian oil trade makes dissecting price data even harder, and official figures are of little help. India to Ensure No Breach on Russia Oil Purchase Sanctions Data from India’s Ministry of Commerce show that the nation’s average price for Russian crude in January was $79.80 a barrel, significantly higher than the $60 cap. That final price, which includes shipping, insurance and other expenses, would imply extraordinary logistics costs if the cap wasn’t breached during that month. The difference between the landed price — the cost when oil arrives at port — and the free-on-board price, which doesn’t include shipping, insurance and other ancillary fees, is the crux of the problem. Moreover, India often secures its oil after it’s in transit, having already left Russia and adding to the complexity of determining the original price. According to the two companies that have long published Russian oil prices — Argus Media Ltd., whose data have for years determined the export duties that Moscow gets from overseas sales, and S&P Global Insights, which is better known by traders as Platts — the price paid at the point of export is far below the price cap. Argus data for the end of February showed the export price of Urals, Russia’s flagship grade and the variety that India is really snapping up, at about $45 per barrel. Platts, which assessed it at similar levels, also publishes a delivered-to-India price for the Urals grade. That price — which includes delivery costs — has been above $60 a barrel since Jan. 18, when Platts started it, and stood at $64.31 on March 10. If correct, those analyses are good news for the Biden administration, which is eager to have large emerging nations support its efforts to stymie the Russian war machine while ensuring uninterrupted flows. A US government official, who asked not to be identified discussing non-public information, said point-of-export (FOB) prices published by Argus Media and Platts are seen as the best indicators of Russian revenues, and the data are consistent with what the Treasury heard anecdotally, even if he acknowledged the opacity of the situation. But then there are recent purchases by Indian refiners of Russian ESPO crude loading from the Far East and trading at a price above the flagship Urals blend, according to Asian traders, suggesting higher values are not out of the question. Another group of researchers who got access to invoice data for Russia’s oil exports estimated that Indian firms paid an average of $64 per barrel for Russian oil in the weeks after the price cap began. Russia’s Crude Exports Slide as Lucrative Pacific Trade Declines Refinery officials in India, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive issues offered no explanation for how precise compliance with a $60 cap would be established. From the delivered price, one official pointed out, it is simply not possible to be sure of the purchase price. Murkiness in the market helps both sides. While the US and its allies say they believe India is buying below the cap, they would be loathe to single out Delhi for criticism regardless. No government wants to alienate the world’s most populous nation which, beyond the dynamics of the war in Ukraine, is seen as a critical swing-state in rising US-China tensions. On Tuesday, a US official said the bulk of Russian seaborne oil — about 75% — is being traded without the use of western services. And the official, Assistant Treasury Secretary Ben Harris, said that while there is some “subversion” of the price cap likely taking place, he said Russian Finance Ministry data show that revenue to Moscow is down. For now, though, the uncertainty threatens to slow purchases, as Indian refinery executives and banks struggle with the additional information required because of sanctions and the price cap. That’s because even if India isn’t a party to the price cap, its banks and other companies want to avoid potentially breaking sanctions. The looming question in the months ahead is whether the Western approach will last. Will Washington and its allies seek to tighten penalties on Russia as the war enters its second year, or opt for a more laissez-faire approach in favor of ensuring continued flows? “They are trying to tailor the carrots and the sticks,” sanctions expert Maria Shagina of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said, explaining US assertions on compliance, and the avoidance of accusations. “It is impossible to have it watertight. It’s about the scale of the leakage.” --With assistance from Sharon Cho, Ruchi Bhatia, Adrija Chatterjee, Daniel Flatley and Sudhi Ranjan Sen. ©2023 Bloomberg L.P.