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About Stratfor

Stratfor is a geopolitical intelligence firm that provides strategic analysis and forecasting to individuals and organizations around the world. On February 4, 2020 Stratfor was acquired by Rane. The terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

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Stratfor: Excluding the Brotherhood from the national dialogue makes it a formality

May 12, 2023

May 12, 2023 An analysis of the “Stratfor” website states that the exclusion of Islamists, led by the Muslim Brotherhood, from the “national dialogue” launched by General Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi empties the dialogue of its true meaning and makes it a formal dialogue with no meaning and futility. The analysis describes the Islamists excluded from Sisi’s dialogue as the real actors in the Egyptian street and the main groups in Egyptian society. Al-Sisi had excluded the Brotherhood from the dialogue in his invitation to him during the Egyptian family’s Iftar party on Tuesday, April 26, 2022 CE, corresponding to the 25th of Ramadan 1443 AH, when he “called intellectuals, writers, thinkers, and media professionals to form a solid front to confront the campaigns of skepticism by a particular faction (the Brotherhood) regarding the achievements of . The priority for Sisi is not to confront the problems that besiege him and the country, but the aim of the dialogue is to address the Brotherhood’s skepticism about the achievements being achieved! However, our estimates in “Freedom and Justice” were that the goal was to restore the June 30 coalition to achieve two goals: the first is to strengthen the regime’s ability to face the deteriorating economic repercussions following the second floatation of the pound in March 2022, as well as the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The second is to design the internal scene to ensure that Sisi wins the upcoming presidential elections (mid-2024) in a decent manner and with minimal losses. The dialogue was frozen for a whole year until the opening session came on Wednesday, May 3, 2023 AD. With a recorded speech by Al-Sisi, speaking about “exchanging visions to draw the features of the new republic”! And last Monday (May 8, 23 AD), the Board of Trustees of the National Dialogue met, but they did not announce the start date of the sessions, which raises many question marks about the regime’s position on the continuous postponements of this dialogue, although it is formal in its content, content, and even its outputs that the regime set before it even began. Same dialogue sessions! Because the regime’s goal is to design the internal scene in accordance with the upcoming presidential elections to ensure that Sisi wins a new term without causing problems for the regime and the state due to the widespread popular rejection of Sisi, his regime, and his policies. The “Stratfor” report, which was published on Thursday, May 11, 2023 AD, indicates that the authorities’ authorities impose their tutelage on the dialogue, whether at the level of the issues under discussion or even the participants in it. And that this security control was translated into a thorough security check of the attendees at those sessions, to ensure the participation of outspoken supporters of the government and non-controversial political opposition groups in the summit, while simultaneously excluding all those who belong to or sympathize with the Islamists or the Muslim Brotherhood movement. The report finds that the exclusion of major groups in Egyptian society, combined with the aforementioned strict controls on what can be discussed, has limited the representative nature of the meeting and the diversity of ideas that subcommittees may generate, making it largely a “national dialogue” in name only. The analysis argues that a dialogue that is entirely under government control may leave little room for minor economic reforms, but is unlikely to generate the serious political changes that people are increasingly demanding. According to the analysis, the dialogue is completely subject to the tutelage of the authority and its security services, and what raises controversy about its usefulness is that the government did not stop arresting and arresting opponents during its session. However, the report confirms that the three red lines that the regime has placed on dialogue empties the meaning of dialogue from its true meaning. Discussion panels, according to Stratfor, are allowed to discuss more than 100 wide-ranging topics, including elections, education, national identity and the economy. However, those in charge of the dialogue, since the opening session (which took place on May 3, 2013), have prohibited discussion on three files: foreign policy, national security, and the constitution. The analysis goes that the inflexibility of the Sisi regime and the government’s strict restrictions on the topics that can be discussed and the participants in the dialogue mean that the Sisi administration wants to prevent the dialogue sessions from turning into a forum for anger over the deteriorating economic conditions, and therefore the regime fears that the dialogue will backfire, spreading the spirit of the opposition. Which threatens the tight security grip on society, which threatens Sisi’s grip on power. But Stratfor warns that without an outlet for people to vent their frustrations on key political and economic issues, Sisi’s firm grip on power could eventually be threatened. The regime leaves no room for dissent, although this is essential for a flexible and adaptable system, but Sisi fears this and believes – according to Stratfor – that this may expose the regime to inherent risks in times of stress by effectively creating a pressure cooker where public anger can build up and eventually explode. The end, as we saw during the Arab Spring. In his article (Why did the national dialogue fail in Egypt? ), researcher Takadim Al-Khatib confirms that the dialogue failed before it began, citing that Muhammad Hassanein Heikal told one of his close associates that the late Vice President Hosni Mubarak, Major General Omar Suleiman, during the revolutionary uprising In January (2011), he contacted him and asked him to take his opinion on the national dialogue process to be held with the opposition in Egypt at that time in order to reach a solution that would end the existing crisis. Heikal replied, “Would it allow, Mr. Representative, to send me a written draft of the national dialogue, so that I can To form a sound opinion on this issue. Then Heikal was surprised that he had received a written draft of the results of the national dialogue, which had not yet begun. At that time, Heikal realized the regime’s hidden intention, as he put it. Al-Khatib concludes, “The Mubarak regime did this in light of the presence of millions in the streets, so what do we think of the Sisi regime, which closed the public sphere, and there is nothing to compel it to pass on any demand to the opposition, or to make any concessions?! This means that Sisi wants the footage and the media distortion more than he believes in the feasibility of the dialogue and the resulting proposals and solutions. Al-Sisi has been imposing his orders on everyone with the power of oppression, violence and terror, and he was brought up in the army on that. He commands and is obeyed without discussion or questioning. Over the past years, Al-Sisi has demonstrated that he rules Egypt as a military commander and not as an experienced president who knows the requirements of his role and the seriousness of his duties.

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  • When was Stratfor founded?

    Stratfor was founded in 1996.

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    Stratfor's headquarters is located at 221 West 6th Street, Austin.

  • What is Stratfor's latest funding round?

    Stratfor's latest funding round is Acquired.

  • Who are the investors of Stratfor?

    Investors of Stratfor include Rane and Teakwood Capital.



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