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Colombia Elects Its First Leftist President, Which Is Bad News For Oil And Gas

Jun 27, 2022

June 27, 2022 - Advertisement - Latin America leaned to the left last week as Colombian voters chose to send Gustavo Petro to the country’s presidential palace. Come August, the former Bogota mayor and former member of the violent M-19 guerrilla organization will join the region’s growing list of left-wing leaders in a political shift, some comparing the “rose tides” of the late 1990s and early 2000s. are doing. Although voters in many Latin American countries managed to steer their countries back to neoliberalism and free market capitalism after the pink tide, a new wave of populism appears to have shifted political appetite again. - Advertisement - In addition to Petro, we have seen the recent elections of leftists such as Mexico’s Andres Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), Peru’s Pedro Castillo and Argentina’s Alberto Fernández. Meanwhile, in Brazil, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, riding the pink tide earlier in power, is leading the election significantly against incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. The president of Trumpian Brazil, whose popularity has been hit by high inflation and rising fuel prices, is reportedly considering increase monthly stipend to millions of poor families in an effort to improve their chances of being re-elected in October. Parts of Central and South America have yet to recover from the economic damage caused by pink tides 20 to 25 years ago. Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega, who “won” a fourth term in November last year by jailing his political opponents, has transformed the small Central American country into the region’s third full-blown dictatorship after Cuba and Venezuela. In March, Nicaragua’s own ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS) bravely Ortega condemned the government To withdraw human rights and quell free speech and political dissent. i have written Many times about Venezuela Once the richest country in Latin America, it is now home to hyperinflation and near-universal poverty due to the failed socialist policies of Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro. Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua, Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, Gustavo Petro of Colombia It may be even more difficult for oil and gas companies to operate in Colombia This brings me to Colombia’s Petro, who would go on to become the country’s first leftist president. Although this is unlikely, there is a legitimate fear that he could be a Venezuelan-if Colombia, one of the United States’ closest allies in the Western Hemisphere. I say “unthinkable” because, as things stand, the Colombian president only serves a four-year term. But as they have proved time and again, autocrats find a way to hang onto power, no matter what. Writer Maya Angelou once said that when someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time. Petro, 62, has shown us that he is not a friend of private property and liberty. He has repeatedly praised Hugo Chavez and says he plans to normalize relations with Venezuela. shameful, elected president retweeted A March 2021 post by liberal economist Paul Krugman in which he tried to make the case that trillions of currency-printing didn’t cause inflation in the US came a year and a half after that original tweet, with prices hitting their fastest pace in 40 years. are increasing. , Despite the fact that crude is Colombia’s number one export, Petro has vowed to be hostile to the oil and gas industry and has pledged to stop awarding new exploration contracts. It reportedly wants to turn Ecopetrol, the country’s primary petroleum producer and the largest of any kind by revenue, into a wind and solar provider. As reported by Bloomberg, the Colombian government owns 85% of ecopetrol, So there is little to stop Petro from accomplishing this. Shares of Canadian oil producers operating in Colombia fell last Monday, a day after the election. The largest of them, Parex Resources, fell more than 10% in intraday trading before closing down 5.6%. Growing Adaptability of Latin Americans to Cryptos The only positive I can see from the Petro Presidency is their Surprising support for bitcoin. As a decentralized asset, bitcoin generally does not appeal to socialists like Petro, who want to control all sectors of the economy. However, he seems to like cryptocurrency Since it takes away the power from the banks and eliminates the need to rely on any third party. To be fair, Petro’s favorable attitude toward bitcoin is shared by a growing percentage of Latin Americans, many of whom have adopted crypto to get past currency controls and send money across borders, as a way to save their money. Not to mention probably the first time in their lives. In a recent report released by Mastercard, an incredible 51% Latin American Transactions made using digital assets, including bitcoin. I expect this figure to increase significantly over the next several years. Climate policies have driven much of the inflation we see now Petro’s anti-fossil ambitions face challenges not only from the constraints of a four-year term but also from a potentially uncooperative Congress. But for the sake of argument, let’s say he succeeds in stopping all exploration and production in the country. Such move will definitely increase fuel price inflation which we are doing Already experiencing around the world. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the demand for oil in the world is fixed Reach pre-pandemic levels next year As more people return to travel for leisure and business. At the same time, global investment in oil and gas projects has not fully recovered, dont expect to do for the rest of the year. Take a look at the chart below. It shows you the 2016-2021 investment growth in Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) budgets for select sectors of the total global energy sector. Fossil fuels outperformed all other sectors, receiving less new funding from energy efficiency, nuclear, hydrogen and fuel cells, renewables and even more. “cross-cutting” Including “Women’s Participation in Clean Energy”, “Clean Energy Education and Empowerment” and other activities. Again, this is all incredibly inflationary. Without substantial investments in conventional energy sources, we will continue to see skyrocketing fuel prices. Oil plunges below 50-day moving average on bearish fears That said, oil was trading down last week on fears that a potential slowdown could lead to a loss in demand. Brent crude, the international benchmark, broke below its 50-day moving average, possibly indicating a bearish trend. As you can see from the 200-day SMA, Brent is still holding strong support, so it could be a head fake. A meaningful drop in fuel costs would be welcome news for all but not all transportation-intensive companies from trucking to airlines to container shipping. Airlines have recently had to increase fares to compensate for rising fuel prices, while shipping rates are set to bounce back from their September 2021 peak. Here’s the inflation of the 1970s. Find out what investors can do about it Click Here! Credit: www.forbes.com /

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