Data On Tap

May 26, 2023

Watch For: Personal Income & Consumer Spending for April; Durable Goods for April; University of Michigan preliminary Consumer Survey for May (Final); Earnings from PDD Holdings, Booz Allen Hamilton, Hibbett, Big Lots Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads: - Municipal Bond Issuers on Edge as Debt Ceiling Deadline Nears - Spending and Inflation Figures Come as Fed Debates Pause - Chip Companies, Wary of Break With China, Seek Looser Limits on Federal Cash - How AI Is Catapulting Nvidia Toward the $1 Trillion Club Follow WSJ market coverage here Opening Call: Stock futures traded mixed on Friday as debt-ceiling concerns still reverberated with inflation data set for release. Worries lingered that lawmakers would not agree to raise the debt ceiling, though reports indicate progress in talks between Joe Biden and Kevin McCarthy. House Republicans have already left Washington ahead of the holiday weekend. Money managers fear that failure to strike a deal could lead to turmoil in financial markets, many of which revolve around the Treasury trading, and accelerate the onset of a possible recession. "I think we'll all be able to exhale by mid-June, although it will likely be an increasingly volatile market environment between now and then," Invesco said. "Once that drama recedes, I think all eyes will be back on central banks." Overseas markets were mixed. Europe's benchmark stock index edged lower in cautious trading. Mainland Chinese and Japanese indexes ended higher, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell again. Stocks to Watch Costco Wholesale reported fiscal third-quarter earnings and sales that missed expectations and the stock was down 1% in premarket trading. Gap reported a narrower loss in its latest quarter and said its gross margins are improving. Shares climbed 14% in after-hours trading. Marvell Technology rose 17% in after-hours trading after forecasting substantial growth thanks in part to artificial intelligence. MongoDB was falling 3% after shares were downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Guggenheim. The price target was raised to $210 from $205 "based on modestly raised forecasts." Nvidia was up 0.2% in premarket trading after closing with a gain of more than 24% on Thursday. Paramount Global rose more than 4% in offhours action. The Wall Street Journal reported that the company's controlling shareholder, Shari Redstone's National Amusements, has secured a critical, $125 million cash infusion. TScan Therapeutics said it commenced an underwritten public offering of its voting common stock. Shares fell 7% in after-hours trading. Ulta Beauty was falling 8% in premarket trading after it reported fiscal first-quarter profit that slightly missed estimates. Workday posted better-than-expected first-quarter results and improved its outlook. Shares rose 8% in after-hours trading. Forex: The dollar edged lower in Europe on signs of progress among U.S. lawmakers on raising the debt ceiling, albeit still without a deal in place. "The mood music is slightly better on the U.S. debt ceiling - but next week will be crucial," ING said. However, with expectations growing that the Fed will raise interest rates again, the dollar could get a boost later as core PCE deflator data will likely give more evidence of core inflation not falling as quickly as the Fed would like, ING said. --- The euro has been on a downward trend against the dollar since the European Central Bank's May 4 meeting and is vulnerable to further falls, SEB said. SEB's short-term fair-value model suggests current levels are fair, but positioning data indicates that broad speculators are sitting on the longest EUR/USD position since October 2020, it said. "There is little probability for a correction higher and rather that downscaling of the long EUR/USD position should be expected to add another downside factor." UniCredit Research said a debt-ceiling deal, although reducing risk aversion, would be unlikely to lift EUR/USD "much beyond 1.0850 at this point, given the ongoing repricing of Fed rate expectations." "Most FX majors...remain cornered against the greenback with the end of the month adding pressure." Energy: Oil prices wavered in Europe having tumbled on Thursday after comments from Russia's deputy prime minister scrambled investors' expectations for OPEC+ plans. Also in focus are the U.S. debt ceiling talks. Metals: Base metals and gold moved higher as expectations rise that an agreement on the U.S. debt ceiling is on the horizon. "The newsflow has been a lot more positive for markets over the last 24 hours," Deutsche Bank said. Improvement in sentiment over the debt ceiling, plus positive economic data from the U.S. such as lower jobless claims last month is helping to boost the macro mood, Deutsche Bank said. "However, investors are once again dialing up their expectations for future rate hikes" as the optimism grows. China Steel Market China's steel market is the softest it has been for some time, but is expected to improve later this year, according to steelmaking coal producer Coronado Global Resources. "At the moment [it's] very quiet." World Steel Association data this week showed a 1.5% fall in China's April crude-steel output on year. "We actually see in the second half infrastructure investments coming back, even property investments coming back, car production picking up, so the demand for steel will pick up and therefore also the demand for met coal out of China," Coronado said. Indian coal demand has, on the other hand, been very strong, it said, adding that "we have no issues selling our coal." TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES Chip Companies, Wary of Break With China, Seek Looser Limits on Federal Cash WASHINGTON-Businesses are pressing the federal government to ease conditions on aid for the semiconductor industry, warning that proposed limits on a grant program and tax credit will make it harder for U.S. companies to compete with their Chinese counterparts and develop new technology. The companies are trying to shape the implementation of last year's Chips and Science Act, which authorized tax credits and $53 billion of spending in a concerted government effort to use public funding to revive the U.S. semiconductor industry. How AI Is Catapulting Nvidia Toward the $1 Trillion Club The business that started 30 years ago with a meeting at a Denny's has become the semiconductor company at the heart of the artificial-intelligence revolution, putting it on the cusp of becoming the first $1 trillion chip company. Nvidia's shares soared more than 24% on Thursday to an all-time high after it said the AI boom is translating into record sales, fueling excitement that the new era in computing is kicking in faster than previously thought. Tesla, Ford Team Up in EV-Charging Deal Tesla is opening some of its fast-charging network to Ford Motor customers in the U.S. and Canada, the companies' chief executives said in a joint appearance Thursday. The deal would give Ford customers access to more than 12,000 fast-chargers, known as Superchargers, beginning in early 2024. The Detroit company also plans to adopt Tesla's charging port. Companies Find Ambitious Logistics Strategies Haven't Delivered Companies that set out to build e-commerce fulfillment services when pandemic-driven online sales boomed are now reining in their logistics ambitions. E-commerce service provider Shopify, apparel retailer American Eagle Outfitters and meal-kit delivery company Blue Apron are among the companies that set expansive strategies in hopes of gaining greater scale, with some looking to establish distribution channels to compete with the sprawling logistics network of https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://Amazon.com__;! !F0Stn7g!BcScAS11NpeH5jVCKiSIV6gGyYoShfdJfCO72KWbfCooUl22H8SSr2GPc9_0wswqHiejHGswihGrzk5I8czxssPT6mB0uIRD3LJK1qLotVw$ . Software Misuse Costs Nutanix $11 Million After Internal Investigation Nutanix, a cloud-computing software and services provider, said an internal investigation into its misuse of third-party software-software intended for evaluation and available at no cost-has resulted in $11 million in estimated payouts to the vendors involved. The San Jose, Calif.-based company said on Wednesday that the software, which Nutanix was supposed to only evaluate, was instead used for business purposes by "individual departments," and certain employees intentionally concealed their actions to one of the vendors. The inquiry also revealed a "material weakness" in internal controls on financial reporting, which led to an "immaterial understatement" of expenses and liabilities going back to August 2014, Nutanix said. Potential Debt-Ceiling Deal Starts to Take Shape as Deadline Looms WASHINGTON-Negotiators are zeroing in on a deal to raise the debt limit, ahead of the June 1 deadline when the government could run short of money to pay its debts and fund government programs and salaries. The talks have focused on a two-year spending deal that would raise the debt ceiling for the same amount of time, extending it past the 2024 election, people familiar with the discussions said, but noted nothing has been finalized. Municipal Bond Issuers on Edge as Debt Ceiling Deadline Nears A Utah city's plan to issue about $15 million in bonds to fund a new parking structure has officials fixated on the fast-approaching deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. The fear: A default could upend the bond market. "The cost will skyrocket for us, and financing could become unattainable, " said Mark Shepherd, mayor of Clearfield, about 30 miles north of Salt Lake City. Spending and Inflation Figures Come as Fed Debates Pause (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires 05-26-23 0603ET